April 25, 2025 - That’s because the Bank of Canada is expected to continue cutting interest rates—three more times this year according to forecasts from RBC Economics — while the American Fed is not, furthering the gap between the two economies. “We do see a little bit more Canadian dollar weakness going through to the middle of the year, and that’s predicated by a continuation of this widening in interest rate differentials,” Davis says.

USD selloff (downside risk; see here). ... Aussie. However, this support has been partially offset by · broader dollar strength and risk-off sentiment stemming

May 12, 2021 - So it has put its call for a weaker Canadian dollar on hold until the fall, but still expects to see the loonie at 76 U.S. cents by September 2022. RBC senior economist Josh Nye agrees that to see any reversal in the loonie’s recent strength ...

NBF Currency Outlook · Current · Forward Estimates · PPP (1) · Currency · October 31, 2022 · Q4 2022 · Q1 2023 · Q2 2023 · Q3 2023

September 13, 2024 - Royal Bank of Canada has downgraded its forecasts for USD/CAD as it sees a more resilient performance from the Canadian Dollar in the coming months. This will also be reflected in gains made against the Pound; however, it is expected to lose ground against the Euro in H1 2025. RBC now predicts the U.S.

The U.S. dollar is overvalued by the most it has been in almost four decades versus the currencies of its main trade partners and the most ever against the Canadian dollar. The overvaluation follows the greenback’s near-9% rally during the last quarter of 2024, a move that unfolded as investors assigned higher odds to President Trump’s policy proposals on trade and deregulation. The U.S. dollar’s strength stalled at about the same time as Trump started his 2nd term at the White House, and the currency’s failure to surpass cycle highs from 2022 (Exhibit 1) suggests that the fears (and hopes) associated with the president’s agenda were already built into exchange rates at that time.

September 12, 2017 - Yes, there are a lot of moving parts here, which underscores the difficulty in making currency predictions. Nonetheless, RBC expects the Canadian dollar will slip below 81 cents against the U.S.

November 7, 2024 - From tariffs to taxes, the new ... As the U.S. economy has been outperforming Canada’s, Freestone expects the Canadian Dollar to weaken in Q4 2024 and into Q1 2025....

December 9, 2025 - The Canadian dollar is holding relatively steady after a volatile autumn, closely tied to the exchange rate dynamics. The Bank of Canada remains patient, while markets expect the Federal Reserve to begin easing more aggressively in 2026.

As the second most traded global ... the U.S. dollar. The fate of Europe’s single currency also depends on whether we see continued improvement in the regional economy and reforms that set the stage for sustained economic gains. We are encouraged by recent economic data on business sentiment (Exhibit 15) and bank lending. Note: As at August 29, 2025. Source: S&P Global, RBC ...

We have penciled in a more modest gain for the Japanese currency than in our previous outlook and now see the yen appreciating to 142 per dollar from 150 at writing. This represents a slightly larger gain than is expected by Bloomberg’s survey of forecasters. Concrete evidence of a more supportive shift in capital flows would prompt us to increase our forecast for the yen’s advance. Note: As at September 30, 2024. Source: BOJ, RBC GAM · The Canadian dollar has weakened by about 3.5% over the past quarter and in November traded outside its well-established range of C$1.32-C$1.40 per U.S.

December 1, 2023 - With the USD/CAD exchange rate currently sitting around 1.35, RBC’s forecasts suggest some near-term weakening of the Canadian dollar, with the U.S. dollar forecasted to end this year at 1.38 and head up to 1.39 by mid-2024.

The four-quadrant framework illustrated in Exhibit 8, devised by Adam Cole and Elsa Lignos at RBC Capital Markets, displays currency returns in different bond/equity environments over the past four decades. As one would expect, a rising greenback correlates most closely with declines in both ...

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1 month ago - For the month ahead, George sees 1.3600 as the downside limit with 1.4100 on the topside. Special report Total Client Experience Economy Markets · We are pleased to bring you the latest edition of the series produced by our colleagues in RBC Capital Markets, hosted by George Davis, CMT, the award winning Chief Technical Analyst for Fixed Income and Currency Strategy.

3 weeks ago - Combined with our expectation of a moderately stronger Canadian dollar, these headwinds could weigh on production and business investment in the sector. Stronger-than-expected crop yields this year prompted an upward revision to our 2025 real GDP estimate. Major crops delivered impressive gains with barley up 26%, canola up 13%, and wheat up 24% from last year—with wheat production reaching record highs. But, Chinese tariffs are expected to be a stiffer headwind, and could weigh on farmers seeding ...

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The currency in our view will continue depreciating for several years until it finally reaches a point where overvaluation is corrected. Both developed and emerging-market currencies should rise against the greenback, and we therefore forecast above-consensus returns for euro, yen, pound and Canadian dollar for the 12 months ahead. Note: As at May 5, 2025. Source: Bloomberg, RBC GAM

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