What do we think? Will it go down further tomorrow? I sold today thinking it will and am waiting to buy the dip. I think it'll go down but I've been wrong before.

Here's a summary from the internet:

Tesla is expected to report a decrease in second-quarter vehicle deliveries, with estimates around 400,000 vehicles, a decline from the 440,000 delivered in the same period last year. This anticipated drop is partially attributed to a political backlash against CEO Elon Musk's involvement with the Trump administration and his controversial political views. In the first quarter, Tesla delivered 336,681 vehicles, a 13% decrease compared to the same period last year, according to CNBC. Production also saw a decline in the first quarter, with 362,615 vehicles produced globally, which was also below analyst expectations.

Q2 2025 Projections: Analysts predict Tesla will deliver approximately 400,000 vehicles in Q2 2025, which is a decrease from the 440,000 delivered in Q2 2024.

Q1 2025 Results: In Q1 2025, Tesla delivered 336,681 vehicles, a decrease of 13% compared to the 386,810 delivered in Q1 2024.

Production: Tesla produced 362,615 vehicles in Q1 2025, including 345,454 Model 3 and Y, and 17,161 units of other models.

Factors Affecting Deliveries: The anticipated decline in Q2 deliveries is influenced by a political backlash against Elon Musk's involvement with the Trump administration and his political views.

Other factors: Changes in Model Y production lines across Gigafactories, and the buildup of inventory, especially in China, also contributed to the first quarter results.

Future Outlook: Despite the anticipated drop in Q2, Tesla is still expected to offer lower-cost and autonomous vehicles in 2025, which could lead to future growth.

My take on Tesla (TSLA) here: a short‑term rebound early next week (Mon–Tue) looks pretty likely.

Today’s volume was actually decent, which matters. This setup reminds me a lot of last year’s Christmas period， low holiday liquidity was used to push the price down, then volume came back starting Jan 2, 2025, and the stock rebounded shortly after.

Technically, TSLA is now pulling back toward an important psychological anchor， the dip area after the Dec 8 peak, which is also a heavy volume / cost basis zone. If price stabilizes around this level, a short‑term bounce over the next few sessions wouldn’t be surprising.

That said, I don’t think we’re getting a repeat of last January’s massive run. The structure is very different:

The main cost‑basis cluster has moved much higher than last year

A large portion of shares are now locked up by longs

Upside momentum isn’t as clean as it was in early 2025

So my view:

Short‑term bounce? Likely.

Straight‑line January melt‑up like last year? Very unlikely.

Curious how others are positioned here， trading the bounce, or staying on the sidelines until structure improves?

Tesla (TSLA) has been one of the most watched stocks in the market, and its recent price action is setting up some interesting trade opportunities. On the fundamental side, Tesla continues to dominate the EV market with strong deliveries, expanding Gigafactory production, and innovation in battery and autonomous driving technology. Its energy division provides additional diversification, though margins are under pressure from rising costs and increasing competition from EV peers like Rivian and Lucid. Analysts remain split on valuation: some see upside as Tesla captures more of the global EV market, while others warn that stretched multiples may leave little room for error if guidance or macro conditions slip.

From a technical perspective, TSLA is currently testing resistance around $310–$320, which aligns with prior all-time highs. Support zones to watch are $285–$290, where the 50-day moving average and previous consolidation levels converge. RSI readings are approaching overbought territory, suggesting short-term caution, while strong volume on recent rallies indicates bullish momentum may still persist. Traders could look for breakouts above $320 with confirmation of volume for a potential momentum trade, or consider buying near $285–$290 with tight risk management if the stock retraces to support. For options traders, vertical spreads or protective puts could hedge against volatility while maintaining exposure to upside.

In terms of strategy, long-term investors may focus on Tesla’s growth trajectory, while swing traders may exploit these technical levels for short-term plays. Macro factors such as interest rate expectations, EV incentives, and broader tech rotation will also influence price action. Personally, I’m monitoring TSLA alongside other large-cap EV and tech stocks to evaluate relative strength and potential rotation opportunities.

I’d love to hear how others are approaching Tesla: Are you playing momentum, value, or hedging strategies? Which support and resistance levels are you watching, and how are you managing risk given the stock’s volatility?

Tesla's stock price has fallen for six consecutive trading days. I just came across an unusual piece of news about Tesla (TSLA) and wanted to share it for discussion.

Tesla recently proactively disclosed analysts' forecasts for its fourth-quarter deliveries, breaking from its usual low-key approach. According to these projections, fourth-quarter deliveries may decline by approximately 15% year-over-year, a rare occurrence in Tesla's history.

Key factors contributing to demand pressure include:

Phasing Out Tax Credits: The gradual withdrawal of electric vehicle subsidies in certain markets significantly impacts marginal demand

Intensifying Competition: Traditional automakers and new energy vehicle manufacturers are simultaneously ramping up efforts, fueling ongoing price wars

Diminishing demand pull-forward effect: Previous price cuts have already captured some future demand

This “pre-disclosure” strategy has also sparked market speculation:

Is Tesla actively managing market expectations?

Does this signal greater near-term fundamental pressures than previously anticipated?

Or is it merely paving the way for a reset in the 2025 growth trajectory?

From a trading and investment perspective, this could yield two starkly different interpretations:

Bearish View: The high-growth narrative is weakening, necessitating a re-evaluation of valuations.

Bullish View: Releasing negative news early could actually mitigate the impact after earnings reports.

Tesla currently sits at the intersection of macroeconomic factors, industry competition, and its own growth trajectory. Heightened short-term volatility may become the norm.

What are your thoughts?

Is this expectation management, or a signal of a demand inflection point? Share your bullish or bearish perspectives.

My prediction, because he’ll make an appearance at the AI event and either say some stupid shit, or do some stupid shit. Hopefully it dips below $356..

After following Tesla closely for a while now, I keep wondering if what i'm seeing is just a pause or something more significant. Free cash flow jumped by over 540% in FY 2025 Q3, which is huge, but at the same time gross margin dropped to 17% and EPS growth fell by 64%. It makes me think how a company can produce that much cash while its core earnings are under such pressure. The numbers seem to be pulling in different directions and that tension is hard to ignore.

I noticed analysts are all over the map on Tesla. Price targets range from $145 up to $860. Some, like Piper Sandler and Wedbush, see a lot of potential upside while Morgan Stanley points to high valuations and forecasts a 20% decline in electric vehicle sales by 2026. and i wonder if the market is really entering an EV winter or is this just a temporary slowdown as competition and regulatory pressure build? For me, it feels like there is more happening beneath the surface than the short-term metrics suggest.

Insider activity adds another layer to consider. Elon Musk received a stock award valued at $141.57 billion while Kimbal Musk’s stock gift was much smaller. That contrast makes me feel there is still a lot of confidence in Tesla’s long-term direction even if it doesn’t show in the quarterly numbers even the volume i’m seeing on uex like bitget futures on tsla is making me wonder if people are still having high hope in it, but another mind is still wondering whether they are just there for the META stock extras. Operationally, the company is projected to meet seven out of twelve milestones in Musk’s compensation plan by 2035, which tells me growth might not be disappearing, it is just taking a different path than some might expect.

But right now, I’m leaning toward staying curious and watching closely. Cash flow, market sentiment, analyst expectations, and insider moves all seem to tell slightly different stories. To me, that is what makes Tesla so fascinating right now. you?

So I've held Tesla since 2018. The stock has had plenty of ups and downs over time such as the 420 moment, Giga Factory ramp ups, and recent layoffs. Currently my shares have gained around 1800% on the initial investment. This has me wondering is now the time to sell? The current market cap on Tesla is $1.3 trillion USD. I guess my thought process is how much more can Tesla honestly gain over next 12-24 months? Previously we had big product roll outs such as Gigafactories openings, super charger expansion, and new vehicles. The 2024 deliveries where down 1% over previous year. I can see deliveries increasing in the future but I don't see previous growth such as Model Y roll out happening soon. That means Tesla will need to either massively cut costs to raise margins or need a big breakthrough such as full level 5 self driving AI. Tesla's current annual revenue is around $100 billion USD. Google with a market cap of 2.45 trillion has annual revenue of $278 billion USD. Even if Musk's current closeness to Trump administration is helpful I dob't see a way to get revenue anyone near that level and increasing the market cap.

This was probably their last great quarter for the car business given expiration of EV credits juicing sales. And even with the juiced sales their margins got squeezed because of price cuts with a significant decline in profits YoY.

My question is does any of this matter. The previous earnings (before the latest one) were pretty bad and the stock did not move down at all. The stock is up 60% in the past 6 months.

The only thing that drove the price down before that was the Trump-Musk fight.

If TSLA earnings suck next quarter, will the stock price move down?

If not, what catalyst would cause the price to fall?

TSLA's beta is around 2, so shorting it means you are short the market with 2x leverage...

Is this a "buy the dip moment" or is there some thing insiders know about this company?

Tesla has been playing this game for years – waving the next big thing around to keep its stock price going. But with iPhone of cars, the Semi and Roadster gathering dust and Optimus once again looking like a distant prospect, it’s starting to feel like their tricks are running out. If they can’t deliver soon, the hype may finally be over.