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I went from $140k to $80k in the last 4 months and just yesterday it was $100k.
I rarely check my stocks but I got on to put find out my numbers as we are looking at buying a house, but man... that feels just brutal.
Anyone have any kind of forecast? Did they just over inflate themselves and it's going back to the price it was years ago?
I saw FI pointed out by someone on this sub and have since done a bit of DD. As a little bit of background, they are a fintech company with a pretty well established product line with thousands of customers worldwide.
They have good free cash flow, strong fundamentals, and yet the price has been drifting down (with a few big drops) for the past >6 months.
What am I missing? Is this undervalued, or is there some hidden poison in the water? What are we thinking?
The only bear cases I can think of myself are the obvious ones: execution risk at continuing growth, and macro conditions changing, but these also exist for competitors and they haven’t suffered the same way. What gives?
Edit: it seems like the comment consensus is that even if the raw numbers look fine, the product is not good and the company is not well run. Don’t think I’ll be hitching my portfolio to this horse. Thanks all
In late October 2025, Fiserv (FI/FISV) experienced one of the most dramatic single-day crashes in its history, closing down 44% in a single trading session on Q3 earnings miss and guidance cut. It has now dropped 75% from $239 peak to the current $64.
Despite the panic, Stockoscope's value algorithm just selected Fiserv as one of the top 5 stocks for the first time after passing on it for 4 consecutive months. It didn’t qualify in August, September, October, or November. The algorithm only flagged it on 1 December at $63.80.
Here’s the breakdown of why our algorithm selected it.
Our Scoring (100-point system):
1. Traditional Value: 26/30
P/E: 9.23x (scored 12/12) - historically traded 25-38x, now at multi-year lows
P/B: 1.33x (scored 8/10) - was 4.39x in 2024, 2.72x in 2023
EV/EBITDA: 7.08x (scored 6.4/8) - was 16.13x in 2024, 12.96x in 2023
2. DCF Analysis: 20/20
Intrinsic value: $172.64 per share
Current price: $63.80
Upside: 171%
3. Quality: 16/35
ROE: 13.97% (6/15 points) - actually up from 11.57% (2024)
Financial health: 6.4/16 - Current ratio 1.08, Debt/Equity 1.20, Interest coverage 4.21x
Profitability: 3.2/4 - Net margin 17%, FCF yield 18%
Damaged but not broken
4. Growth: 13/15
Revenue growth: 16.3% YoY (10/12 points)
FCF trend: Perfect score (3/3)
Revenue: $19.1B (2023) --> $20.5B (2024)
FCF: $3.8B --> $5.1B (+34% YoY)
Further details about our value algorithm
https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1ngp8l7/built_a_grahaminspired_value_framework_that/
The Business:
#1 core banking provider (42% of US banks)
#2 merchant acquirer (41B transactions annually)
High switching costs = strong moat
The Risk:
Could further drop (falling knife)
New CEO execution uncertainty
Guidance could deteriorate further
Value trap if structural vs temporary.
The Key Insight: Traditional value (26) + DCF (20) = 46/50 points. The valuation is screaming cheap. Quality (16) + Growth (13) = 29/50 points. The fundamentals took a hit but are still decent.
Thoughts? Classic Graham setup or a value trap?
Disclaimer: This is an educational analysis from our algorithmic screening system, not investment advice. Do your own research.