Yahya Sinwar

This headline is atrocious. It reads like Israel killed a UN employee. While still true, it's far more damning of the UN... Hamas themselves are confirming this guy was both a senior commander AND a member of their leadership... while enjoying the diplomatic access as a UN employee. Is the UN this severely compromised? And Hamas isn't even trying to hide it - why not deny his affiliation? More on reddit.com

Professor Stephen Kotkin famously mentions in his talks about the history of the Soviet Union a "surprising" fact he found during his research into Soviet archives - that there was no distinction between public propaganda and personal sentiments among the leadership - their private letters for example show they fully believed in their own bs, it was not just an act. Similarly, despite some very good answers here, Hamas cannot be fully understood via purely geopolitical lens, its leaders are not only making strategic calculation how to hurt Israel or further their own power in this world, they are also very much concerned with the next world and it plays a real part in their decision making. Some would call it disregard for value of life but it's deeper than that, ultra-religious people do hurt very much when loved ones die, but their value system is such that the way in which they died matters greatly. For Arab Muslims extremists, this is not only a tenant of their belief - it also resonates very powerfully with their social structure where honor is a currency held in highest esteem - so having suffered a loss for the "right reason", be it bodily harm to yourself or loss of family members, it also brings with it a lot of social prestige. This almost feels like discussing 16th century Japan, the mindset is so alien in the western world nowadays (though up until the 18-19th centuries it was very prevalent in Christian Europe) and thus quite hard to contend with - we usually want clean analysis of gains and losses - but it needs to be accounted for when trying to understand extreme ideologies, they are rational by their world view, but it is based on a very different set of values. More on reddit.com

I had a friend in Washington who had the "Major Fuckup" theory of human history. George III thought he could send an army of German mercenaries to the American colonies to put down unrest. Napoleon though he could conquer Russia easily. So did Hitler. Didn't work out so good. Japanese emperor was sure if he sank the American fleet in the Pacific, the US would surrender and let him have Asia and the Pacific. Putin thought he could take Kyiv in three days. Hamas thought they could overrun the most powerful country in the middle east? A smart man once told me you're in trouble when you start believing your own bullshit. More on reddit.com

IDF intel estimates that Hamas had 30 000 fighters there or there abouts. Israel thinks they killed ~13 000 of them. So around 17k fighters left after 6 months. Now add we keep reading about Israel spec ops raids, that come under heavy attack as they enter Hamas controlled territory to rescue hostages/retrieve corpses. So its clear that Hamas has operational control of areas Gaza, where the Idf has been unable to supress them or take the territory. With regions of Gaza STILL under Hamas military control, over half their fighters still standing and shooting back AND the hostages (if any remain alive) still chained to Hamas radiators: its difficult to describe this as anything other then a hard fought draw. If a ceasefire is signed under this status quo in the coming months, if the IDF are prevailed upon to not enter Rafah and end Hamas resistance and if the IDF continues to fails to squash said resistance in the rest of the strip... Well sadly Hams has won and Sinwars strategy has proven to be correct. This is for them the definition of victory: Massive Israeli casualties, failure of the IDF to subdue the strip while causing such a loss of civilian life even the Americans are turning on Israel. With the eventual signing of the ceasefire there will be a massive influx of foreign aid money that Hamas can use to rebuild stronger then ever. So in answer to your question; Given the information we have available to assess, Hamas must be feeling reasonably confident round about now, I don't think we will truly know the answer though until after the noise stops. More on reddit.com