Since it is the first day of the year, I decided to give my predictions for 2026 and beyond. All of these are based on damped sinusoidal waves with 7-year, 5-year, and 19-year cycles. All of the cycles have been checked for significance.

• 2026-Anemic and below historical trending average.

• 2027-Higher than average potential for market losses.

• 2028-Even higher than average probability for market losses. This year holds the highest potential for a market crash in the near future.

• 2029-2031-Anemic and below historical trending market averages.

• 2032-Higher probability of better than average market gains.

I am telling my peeps to take some money off the top, and fall in love with cash and cash equivalents.

If I were to guess what the catalysts are, we have a lot of political risks (i.e., Trump tariffs), and market risks with AI being an over-hyped reality (similar to the tech bubble, but not as severe).

This is meant to be light hearted. I'll post this thread again next year, and we can see how we did.

For me

1. I think ai chips + hyperscalers do solid this year

2. I think the market maybe delivers 10%? but i'm feeling a bumpier year

3. gold will underperform

With another year wrapping up, I’m curious how people here are thinking about next year.

What do you think will be the biggest drivers of returns by the end of 2026? Are you making any portfolio adjustments now based on those views?

It's going to be an interesting year for sure..lol.

What are your top 3 stock ideas 2026?

Mine is Unite Group, UiPath and Frontier Developments.

In your guys opinion, what are some high risk high reward picks for 2026, which have a potential to do a massive run up if the company is able to pull it off or do a massive dump if they dont.

I see Poet being mentioned a lot, but i dont quite understand how they will pull it off.

Firstly, let me say I hate these over-done posts as much as the next person hah, but I did want to offer my insights as a 20+ year investor with both a long portfolio and an options portfolio that I generate a living income off of.

My long portfolio is currently 100% SGOV. Without overanalyzing or cherry picking, the simplest historic indicators show that market valuations right now are extremely rich, of the type that always proceeds a major correction.

Shiller PE nearing dot-com levels: https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

Trailing PE highest on record: https://worldperatio.com/index/sp-500/

Forward PE at a ceiling it only surpasses during major market crises: https://en.macromicro.me/series/20052/sp500-forward-pe-ratio

On top of that you have a flight to safety, gold, and a flight from risk, bitcoin, rounding out 2025 narratives.

However, despite this, I'm not actually bearish for 2026. There will be an come-uppance, we all know this, but I can see 2026 melting up another 5-10%.

This is because the single most influential variable the market has responded to in the last 15 years is liquidity, and apparently the biggest source of liquidity isn't jobs or GDP, but interest rates. This has driven the Main St vs. Wall St divide since 2008.

Now the US has an administration that is hell bent on lowering interest rates, regardless of any orthodox impetus to do this. Trump will be appointing a new Fed chair, and possibly more members, who will basically vote how he says. Not only that, but I could see this new chair making statements during any moderate 10% market correction that support QE and rescuing the market, meaning almost any red month will be a buy-the-dip type situation.

We also have a pending SCOTUS decision, possibly as soon as Jan 9th, that actually looks like it could undo tariffs, which I think would cause a rally in the S&P493.

You never know with someone like Trump at the handle, but it's hard for me to see any major negative catalysts for 2026, aside from 'concerns about valuations'. Maybe a single missed ER by nVidia will cause an unwind, or maybe global liquidity will begin to dry-up as most other OECD nations take more moderate monetary policies and more severe theories about the yen carry-trade show true.

I always play defensively as I live off my savings - I intend to stay in SGOV in my long portfolio - I'll take a safe 4.25% over a risky 8.5% any day of the week. For options, where I normally sell CSPs, I'll likely pursue more delta neutral strategies.

As we head into 2026, i see the stock market entering a phase of cautious optimism. Inflationary pressures have eased compared to the last two years, and central banks are signaling a more balanced stance. This creates room for value investors to look beyond defensive plays and start identifying sectors with sustainable growth. The broader market may still face volatility, but opportunities exist for those willing to dig into fundamentals.

For the first quarter of the new year, i expect strength in energy transition stocks (companies tied to renewables and grid infrastructure), semiconductors (driven by AI and data center demand), and healthcare innovators (particularly firms with strong pipelines in biotech). These areas combine resilience with long term tailwinds. I am also watching undervalued industrials that benefit from reshoring trends, as they could quietly outperform while the spotlight remains on tech.

One advantage of sticking with traditional finance is the transparency and regulatory oversight it provides. Public companies are required to disclose earnings, governance, and risk factors, which gives investors a clearer framework for decision making compared to more speculative markets. Value investing thrives in this environment because it allows us to separate noise from fundamentals and focus on intrinsic worth.

That said, i have been trading traditional stocks on CEX, as bitget bridge traditional assets with crypto. Traders have been testing out the new TradFi product. But am curious how others here view this kind of new product?

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/bank-of-america-shares-sp-500-warning-for-2026

> As of Q3 2025, the “Magnificent 7” (led by giants like Nvidia) contributed an eye-popping 54% of the S&P 500’s price gain and 44.1% of its earnings growth, per First Trust.

Haven’t seen this datapoint before, I find it quite staggering. After this quote goes on to mention market cap-to-GDP, price-to-book, and enterprise value-to-sales.

> As a result, it’s more about hunting selective opportunities, particularly in health care and real estate.

> The case for health care and real estate in a fully priced market Subramanian argues that health care and real estate are two sectors that look cheaper than tech, and the numbers are moving in the right direction. Having assigned an overweight rating on both with a nearly one-year time frame, she suggests the appeal isn’t just about low valuations, but about improving fundamentals.

I find this stance kind of strange, is this normal for BoA to do? I feel that it causes the article to lose the credibility it had accumulated, at least for me.

What do those with more knowledge/experience than me think about this?

If you could guess what sector will trend for 2026?

Was reviewing the "what is your stock picks for 2026" people are suggesting space / aerospace stocks to trend but there's also talk about energy expansion.

Gold could also rally more, semis can continue to pump too.

What are your thoughts?

Wall Street sentiment is starting to shift more positively heading into 2026, especially after the S&P 500 and Dow both hit record highs in the same week the Federal Reserve delivered a rate cut. The timing mattered markets were already on solid footing, and the policy move helped reinforce the idea that financial conditions may stay supportive for longer. What really stood out to investors were Jerome Powell’s comments after the Fed meeting. Instead of pushing back hard against easing expectations, Powell sounded noticeably less hawkish than many feared. That tone gave markets room to breathe, especially after months of uncertainty around inflation, growth, and the labor market. It doesn’t mean risks are gone valuations are still stretched in parts of the market, and economic data remains mixed but the combination of rate relief and calmer Fed messaging has clearly improved confidence. Right now, it feels like investors are less focused on short-term scares and more willing to look ahead into 2026 with a bit more optimism. Curious how others see it: is this the start of a steadier phase for markets, or just another relief rally before the next macro test?

Source:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/not-very-hawkish-at-all-wall-street-optimistic-on-stock-market-rally-in-2026-after-fed-rate-cut-150011314.html

Everyone is starting to ask what next year’s market outlook will be. So let’s study Wall Street’s latest New Year forecasts together. The market has really been wild lately. One minute everyone is celebrating Nvidia’s earnings, thinking tech stocks can keep rising for another ten years, and the next minute the market suddenly tanks and big players dump Nvidia to rotate into Google. The AI ​​boom has clearly entered its second half.

So the question is: how long can this wave last? After this round of Christmas gains, will next year keep taking off or fall flat? Every year end, those suit-and-tie Wall Street elites start brainstorming and draw a road map for the next year. This year, I looked through everything almost all of them are bullish. Eternal bull market.

The most optimistic one is Deutsche Bank. They boldly claim the S&P 500 could reach 8000 points next year, nearly a 20% increase. Keep in mind, the S&P has already risen more than 10% this year, and they still want more. Why so optimistic? It basically comes down to two words: Artificial Intelligence.

AI is no longer just a tech buzzword. It has become the engine of the entire capital market. Nvidia, Microsoft, Google these giants are throwing insane amounts of money into AI R&D. Capital expenditure is at record highs. Deutsche Bank believes AI investment and adoption will dominate market sentiment next year and could even spark a true productivity revolution.

But here’s the problem the S&P 500 is now trading at a 25x P/E ratio, while the historical average is just above 15. Isn’t that expensive? It definitely is. But Deutsche Bank insists that even if valuations don’t expand further, they can stay high. Why? Because supply and demand for stocks are extremely strong. Money is still flowing into equities, corporate buybacks haven’t stopped, and earnings expectations are rising. They even predict that in In 2026, EPS could reach $320.

Interestingly, Morgan Stanley is also bullish, targeting 7800 points, yet they didn’t buy the Magnificent Seven. Their chief strategist Wilson thinks tech stocks might fall alongside the broader market. They prefer small caps, consumer discretionary, healthcare, financials, and industrials. Why? Because they see a key signal earnings expectations are shifting from tech to other sectors, and consumer spending is moving from entertainment to physical goods. This suggests the economy might be entering a new phase.

More importantly, Morgan Stanley is betting that the Fed will cut rates early. The logic is simple: if employment weakens, liquidity tightens, and risk assets fall, Powell won’t be able to hold he’ll have to pump liquidity back into the market. Once rates turn down, the valuation ceiling opens again.

HSBC, Barclays, and UBS all agree. HSBC even said: who cares if there’s a bubble? The dot-com bubble also rose for three to five years just get on the ride first. UBS even drew a bull scenario where the S&P hits 8400. But they also admit the market is shifting from tech dominance to broader sector participation. Capital spending is no longer only on AI chips it’s spreading across more industries.

From my perspective, the U.S. market is still the top priority next year, but we shouldn’t be overly optimistic because it will be Trump’s second year in office. You might not know this, but historically, the second year of a U.S. presidential term especially midterm election years has been the weakest and most volatile for stocks.

In 2018, during Trump 1.0’s second year, the first half was great, then the market collapsed in the second half. The trade war began, tech stocks plunged, the VIX soared 70%, and even crypto and emerging markets crashed.

And now? The script looks nearly identical. Policies change every day. Tariffs can hit at any time. Even if the Supreme Court slows down tax hikes, the possibility alone is enough to make manufacturers, retailers, and exporters lose sleep.

Plus, the 2026 midterm elections are coming. Both parties will go all-out, meaning fiscal policy may freeze again, and market trust in the government will keep eroding.

What’s worse, sector divergence is even more extreme than in 2017. In the U.S., only AI related tech stocks are supporting the market. Materials, energy, real estate everything else is dropping. Europe isn’t much better. Finance and utilities barely hold up while others slump.

When only a few assets are booming and most are stagnant, it signals a fragile market. If tech stocks cool off, the entire market could lose momentum instantly.

So next year, political cycles, policy risks, and the pressure of converting AI hype into real profits these three mountains won’t disappear. Right now the market is pricing in aggressive rate cuts while also assuming a soft landing and continued earnings growth. Wanting everything at once often ends badly.

In my view, the script may look like this:

First half: AI momentum and liquidity expectations may push the market higher again.

Second half: As midterm elections approach, policy noise increases, earnings get disrupted, and volatility returns.

Whoever holds high valuation, low cash flow story stocks will be the most at risk.

It’s that time of the year again we’re nearing the end of 2025 and heading into a brand new year soon. Thanks to recommendations from fellow Redditors, I picked up ASTS, RKLB, and NBIS earlier this year and managed to make some gains.

What bags are you holding now that you think could seriously take off and go to the moon in 2026? #MOONSHOT2026

I just rebalanced my portfolio to: NVDA (25%), MU (20%), GOOGL (15%), META (15%), MSFT (15%), and LLY (10%).

I compare the projected revenue growth and trailing operating profit margin to the multiple of enterprise value divided by projected operating profit to create a number I call Value Score. All of my picks have a Value Score of at least 2.0.

I’m going to end 2025 +45-50%, after going +80% in 2024. I use margin to boost my return, but I don’t recommend it for people with lower risk tolerance than me.

My returns in 2025 were still pretty good. The only regret this year was that I sold ASST and RBLX after holding them for a while. In the new year, there are some companies that haven’t really taken off yet. I want to ask everyone which stocks they think have big potential and aren’t too expensive right now that they can recommend

So, we tried this in 2025 and the index returned 76%.

For the last week, there was a thread in which each person could pick one stock to do well in 2026.

There were roughly 2,200 picks.

The top 10 were:

1 ASTS
2 RKLB
3 GOOGL/GOOG
4 AMZN
5 NBIS
6 RDDT
7 MU
8 IREN
9 TSLA
10 PLTR

For those on Trading 212, I've created a pie named Wallstreetbets 2026 Top 10

What stock will 2026 belong to ?

2025 was Alphabet up some 62% YTD & if you bought during April lows you could’ve gotten 100%, driven by strong cloud growth, Gemini, and Youtube ad subscription. I got in at $250 & still got up 30%.

What will be your go to & why ?

Most investors are currently treating the S&P 500 as a safe haven. They are ignoring the fact that index concentration is at a 50 year high and the equity risk premium is effectively zero. We are seeing a massive divergence where the Magnificent Seven are priced for perfection while high quality cash generators in boring sectors are being priced for a recession that hasn't arrived.

1. The Passive Inflow Distortion Passive indexing has created a valuation feedback loop. Money flows into the index, which forced buys the most expensive stocks, which pushes the index higher. This has decoupled price from value. History shows that when concentration reaches these levels, the subsequent decade usually results in flat or negative real returns for the index leaders. Price eventually matters.

2. The AI Capex Circularity Risk We are tracking a significant risk in 2026: AI earnings circularity. A huge portion of current AI revenue comes from cloud providers funding the same startups that purchase their compute services. Industry analysis suggests that for the $500B in hyperscaler capex to be justified, we need $2 trillion in new annual revenue—a figure unsupported by current enterprise adoption rates. If this circularity breaks, the correction won't be a dip; it will be a structural repricing.

3. The Opportunity in Boring Cash Flows While the crowd chases 30x forward earnings in tech, there is a generational setup in what I call Anti-Momentum stocks. We are looking at wide-moat businesses in utilities, logistics, and consumer staples trading at 12-14x FCF with 5% yields. These are companies with sticky backlogs and high revenue visibility that act as a natural hedge against an AI valuation reset.

Conclusion In 2026, the winners won't be the ones with the best stories; they will be the ones with the cleanest balance sheets. If you are index-heavy, you aren't diversified; you are just long on a single theme.

I am currently finalizing a 10,000-word mandate on the Great Rotation and the specific value plays we are positioning for in 2026. It includes a deep dive into the $10B FCF inflection point for one of our largest convictions. You can join the list here to get the full research when it drops:https://substack.com/@wealthwhispersss

I know many here have had the same investment strategies for years, others are just getting started.

Curious about what everyone’s strategy is for 2026. For me, I’m invested about 20 percent in emerging tech stocks with the majority being in index funds, both locally and Internationally.

I’ll be honest, my portfolio blew up over the last couple years mostly due to poor trading decisions and trying to time the market. I’ve stepped away from day trading and options for now, and I’m working on building a more stable, long-term portfolio from scratch.

This time I’m focusing on growth stocks that have a shot at outperforming the S&P or broader ETFs. So far, I’m looking at names like PAAS, SOFI, GOOGL, AMZN, and RIVN. I’m also considering something like XEQT as a diversified base layer to balance out the risk.