The stock market is seeing a lot of chop in the more popular sectors like A.I. despite earnings beats. In a prediction market - you wouldnt make much by predicting an obvious beat, or an obviously profitable year. But you can make enough now to outpeform the sp500 or even investing in those companies directly.

For example, the old school of thought was, if a company is profitable and its financials are clean, its stock would suredly rise. But this isnt how the stock market works anymore. Teslas balance sheet looked way worse than fords yet as fords stock price went down, tesla skyrocketed.

Now the same is holding true for many other stocks as well, and this is all thanks to hedging and excess options activity, turning the market into a giant casino instead of an instrument of debt as was intended.

Thus, the rise of prediction markets. Take blackberry for example, double earnings beat and the stock loses substantial value immediately due to over leveraging - no fault of the company or shareholders.

Meanwhile, a bullish player in the prediction market walked away with an actual profit by betting the company would beat earnings.

While one is a marginalized loss (the stock) and the other is total loss, the position sizing eliminates this discrepancy. A shareholder of blackberry loses 13% on a double beat - that 13% lost had the same profitibality as the entire investment in the prediction market 3-fold. Which brings me to my next point - diversification.

Eventually someone will work out the math and create a firm based entirely on prediction markets using the same diversified/model based portfolios which exist in the stock market, betting on 100's of companies to be profitable or not YOY.

This is going to be so toxic for the economy becouse it takes money out of the instrument of debt and puts it into a market where the only 2 winners are the broker and the contract holders compared to the stock market where the third winner is the company whos equity increases with higher participancy.

Unfortunatley, with the amount of leveraging, insider trading, and nonsensical market moves happening in the stock market, a future of prediction market dominance is all but guaranteed.

Is it when retail are forced to sell their positions, even at a loss because they lack the funds to cover bills, etc?

So like recession times? Is it when unemployment rates are high? is it when disposable income is at its lowest? is it when people can't affford new triple A games? etc.

So for someone who hasn't started investing yet and has money in savings... Would it be better to put the money in a GIC or something guaranteed to grow a bit and then once the crash happens, buy while it's low? There is bound to be some kind of crash the way the economy is going right? Doesn't it kinda feel like things have peaked? Isn't buying at peak not really a good idea?

What does everyone think? If you had 100k from inheritance or something would you still invest it today or would you see how the next year or two plays out?

Hello everyone

I have used the following senteces in Deepseek, ChatGPT, Copilot, Claude, Grok and Perplexity Pro and Gemini

"You are a financial manager with 100 years on experience trading stocks.
You have a BsC in Economic Factors, a Master in Accounting and a PhD in Market Analysis.
You predicted with 95% certainty & accuracy the market crashes since 1920 until 2025.
You avoided the collapse of your portfolio by redistributing the stocks before the market crashed.
You know exactly the leading indicators of a market crash so you acted before it happened.
Provide
- a comprehensive list of ALL the markets indicators that you must track
- what you need to focus / look- what is the range / tendency that you need to pay attention
- show these indicator in ALL the market crashes since 1970 to have history- Prepare a PDF file with all that information, with graphs in color, tables, range, descriptive information etc. That file must be extremely comprehensive in data and analysis"

EVERY single AI gave me the same results

Your toughts??

The world right now is showing three signs which are very similar to exactly what happened before the Great Depression in 1929 and the dot com crash of the year 2000.

Which means most experts around the world are expecting a major market crash to happen, and we need to look at the strategy of what investors like Warren Buffet are doing right now and copy that to protect our wealth.

The first metric which is very similar is a valuation multiple in the stock markets called the Shiller P/E ratio. Now whenever it goes above the point of 32, it means a major crash is expected, exactly what happened in 1929 and the year 2000. And right now this ratio is at 39, which is 23% higher compared to the previous benchmarks, which means it's extremely risky.

Now, the second thing is actually this very interesting concept called the yield curve inversion. What does it mean? It basically means that, you know, in the short term, when you put money in the bank in an FD, the bank gives you higher return compared to when you make an FD for a longer duration. Now, this seems very counterintuitive, but this is one of the best indicators available in the world economy today to be able to predict a recession. And this yield curve inversion is showing up in the US market since October of 2022 to December of 2024.

( FD is same as HYSA in USA)

Now, while it has normalized and become okay right now, most economists are expecting that 18 months from December 2024 is where the crash will happen.

Now comes the third sign, which is concentration of valuation of the stock market index in a handful of stocks. And we are seeing exactly this in the S&P 500 or the US index, where out of 500 stocks, just seven stocks called the Magnificent Seven AI stocks hold 47% the value of the index. And most financial analysts around the world know that AI right now is in a massive bubble, which means over the next six to twelve months, a major crash is expected and the US stock market may fall by 30 to 40%, which will have ripple effects around stock markets around the world.

Now, in such a time, what is Warren Buffet doing? Well, right now practically close to 28% of his portfolio is just in cash and bank deposits, which is the highest ever allocation he's made to such assets in history. Earlier, he would maintain his cash and bank deposit portfolio share to just about 10% because he's expecting a major crash, which is why I would recommend, you know, you really need to look at diversification in your portfolio. Possibly have 20% of your portfolio in gold, about 20 to 25% in cash and bank deposits, and please, please diversify away from risky assets.

2025 was the year of "Mag7 or nothing." You could literally just buy Nvidia, Apple, Google, or Microsoft and make 20-30% returns. It was almost too easy.

But looking at the data for 2026, I'm seeing something different:

What's changing:

• Emerging markets returned 34.4% in 2025 (outperforming US)

• Energy stocks are rallying (JP Morgan estimates US oil potential)

• Value stocks are starting to outperform growth

• Housing prices are DOWN for the first time in 2+ years

• Retail spending is showing signs of fatigue

This feels like the beginning of a real market rotation, not just a dip

What I'm realizing:

The easy money in 2025 was in mega-cap tech. But 2026 might reward investors who are

willing to diversify:

• Energy (oil prices forecast to average $61/barrel)

• Emerging markets (already up 34.4% in 2025)

• Real estate (prices down, potentially a buying opportunity)

• Retail (some names like ULTA, AEO, GAP are showing strength)

I'm not saying sell everything. But I am saying that the playbook from 2025 (just buy Nvidia) might not work in 2026.

Am I crazy for thinking this? Or are you seeing the same signs?

Hey everyone,

I keep seeing people online and in the news / online saying things like “the market is going to crash soon.” “This or that is overvalued”, etc I’m not here to argue whether that’s true or not. I’m just trying to understand what that actually means in practice.

For the people who believe a crash is coming, what do they usually do about it? Do they sell their positions before it happens? Move to cash? Or do most just keep holding and wait it out?

I’m not asking for advice, just curious how people who expect a crash typically react or prepare.

Edit: thank you all! My question is answered, now I know :)

Since it is the first day of the year, I decided to give my predictions for 2026 and beyond. All of these are based on damped sinusoidal waves with 7-year, 5-year, and 19-year cycles. All of the cycles have been checked for significance.

• 2026-Anemic and below historical trending average.

• 2027-Higher than average potential for market losses.

• 2028-Even higher than average probability for market losses. This year holds the highest potential for a market crash in the near future.

• 2029-2031-Anemic and below historical trending market averages.

• 2032-Higher probability of better than average market gains.

I am telling my peeps to take some money off the top, and fall in love with cash and cash equivalents.

If I were to guess what the catalysts are, we have a lot of political risks (i.e., Trump tariffs), and market risks with AI being an over-hyped reality (similar to the tech bubble, but not as severe).

Given all the macroeconomic factors at play now, we can't keep thinking that the market will do nothing but go up. So realistically, when do expected the downward spiral on stocks and valuations to begin? With the next 2-3 months? In 6 months? In a year?

Obviously the title is a bit clickbait.

But with

•The current ongoing of Trump power that could move the market by 1 tweets

• The current heavy government involvement in the stock market.

• As well as many anonymous Wall Street and top companies back Trump.

• New Feds change coming up and mixed policies that is unprecedented to favor AI and crypto

I kinda have a stupid theory that there may not be a nuclear market crash like many people have hoped anytime soon and anticipated despite the charts and datas say otherwise

Like there’s too much personal interest from within the Trump admisnistration and economy that they won’t let the market crash anytime soon unless he wanted too.

They will keep throwing bandages to anything that point out the weakness just to keep this alive or make any sudden change in policy that is unpredictable/ unprecedented to keep it going.

Like Trump literally revived Intel Stock within months , so you can’t say he won’t do the same to the stock market

With another year wrapping up, I’m curious how people here are thinking about next year.

What do you think will be the biggest drivers of returns by the end of 2026? Are you making any portfolio adjustments now based on those views?

It's going to be an interesting year for sure..lol.

These companies are left holding up the stock market. If they fall, the entire market falls. And it’s the opposite if they all go up the whole market goes up. But the chart tells a different story of the recent trend. They are going up but rest of market is going down. Here is what i think of the stocks left holding up the market.

AAPL - weakness in innovation, losing growth

MSFT - might be overbought here

META - good ad business but questionable ai product profitability

NFLX - high pe might give back massive gains its had

NVDA - ai sales increase already priced in. everyone says 170 eoy yet price is stalling. People relying on eoy to save them usually not a good thing.

AMZN - aws has competition with new datacenter companies emerging. Needs to take on more debt just to maintain its margin intensive shipping business

GOOG - losing search dominance, ai is good but not perfect yet, to maintain ai dominance intensive spending must happen will affect earnings

COST - taking a hit from tarrifs, it had a monster run and might give back a lot of gains

TSLA - lead roles stepping down, doesn’t look good for promises of products happening.

Michael Burry, known for predicting the 2008 crisis, has reportedly taken positions that would profit if Nvidia and Palantir fall by 30 to 50 percent. This could earn him over 1.5 billion dollars. On 11 November, he claimed that major tech companies are using questionable accounting by stretching the useful life of GPUs and servers beyond what is realistic, which reduces reported depreciation and inflates earnings.

He argues that GPUs become obsolete in about two years due to rapid innovation, yet companies depreciate them over longer periods, which results in overstated profits.

Peter Thiel has also sold his entire Nvidia stake worth over 100 million dollars. Around the same time, Professor Aswath Damodaran said he would prefer investing in gold and physical assets instead of stocks at such high valuations.

These developments could affect markets in countries like India, as Nvidia is already down around 4 percent and Tesla around 7 percent. When US markets fall, foreign investors often pull money from emerging markets to rebalance portfolios.

No one can predict the future, so stay cautious rather than overly risky. What do you guys think, Will there be a market crash? If yes then how to diversify our assets, I had invested with high risk profile mostly in equity but now the news is making me a little skeptical :/

After the early April decline and subsequent partial recovery, I have heard many people say this was not the "real crash" and to wait for it before making any moves. How likely is this to be true in your opinion? Can the dead cat bounce track sideways for 4+ months?

I wrote this last night, and I wanted to wait until the end of the day to confirm my thesis. Today, the Nasdaq ended at +333.14 on nothing except Fed saying that they will turn on the printing machine, which will devalue the dollar even more and send inflation to the moon. Everything below was my thought process last night. Additionally, the post below really helps explain why we're in deep trouble, but all of the retailers are focused on the stock market, and BlackRock and JPMorgan are telling us that we're in a recession (Stagflation).

https://www.reddit.com/r/WallStreetbetsELITE/comments/1jx4qr9/the_bond_market_crisis_explained_for_you_regards/

As I sit here watching the Nasdaq futures spike up 288 points, I can’t help but feel uneasy. With the combination of tariffs, an escalating trade war narrative, and unsettling movements in the bond market—particularly the 10-year and 30-year yields—it’s hard not to see this as a potential prelude to a market crash or at the very least, the beginning of a bear market. While nothing is ever certain in the markets, the recent behavior we’ve been witnessing isn’t just noise—it’s a glaring signal that something is fundamentally off.

When the Nasdaq starts swinging 500 points or more in either direction for several consecutive days, that level of volatility is not just abnormal—it’s a red flag for deeper market instability. This pattern often precedes or accompanies systemic crises and tends to be driven by a combination of macroeconomic disruption, loss of confidence, and major repositioning by institutional investors.

There are typically two major factors that contribute to such extreme and sustained volatility.

First, extreme volatility reflects a market grappling with uncertainty, crisis, or both. Markets do not move wildly without cause. These kinds of large, daily price swings often indicate that investors are trying to price in the unpredictable—be it a geopolitical threat, economic policy shifts, or a financial system under pressure.

What’s especially concerning now is that we’re not dealing with just one variable—we’re contending with all of them. The current economic backdrop includes unresolved trade tensions, shifting policy (playing chicken with a country that had no problem killing 40-80 million of its citizens), and geopolitical conflicts with unclear outcomes. On top of that, corporate earnings season has revealed a growing sense of uncertainty within companies themselves. A number of major firms have stopped issuing forward guidance, signaling that even CEOs and CFOs are unsure about what lies ahead. One of the most notable examples was Target, which essentially admitted, “We don’t know.” When corporate leadership starts to lose visibility, that lack of confidence trickles down through the markets.

The second driver is institutional repositioning. When large funds start rapidly rotating out of certain sectors—most commonly tech and growth—and into safer or more defensive holdings, the size of those movements alone can send markets soaring or tumbling. In addition to this rotation, institutions may begin to hedge more aggressively or unwind leveraged positions, creating massive capital flows that can spike volatility. This is why we're seeing large green and red days for no reason.

Interestingly, several articles have surfaced this past week discussing these very moves—rotations, de-risking, liquidity tightening—but I initially dismissed them as overblown headlines. In hindsight, I think they were onto something, and I wish I had saved those links for reference. The market may be telling us more than we realized.

These patterns of extreme volatility aren’t unprecedented. In fact, we’ve seen them during some of the most turbulent periods in recent history. Two notable examples are the 2008 Financial Crisis and the COVID Crash of 2020.

During the 2008 collapse, from September 15 to late November, the market experienced around 30–40 trading days of repeated 500+ point swings in the Nasdaq. Some notable days include:

• October 13, 2008: +11.8%

• October 15, 2008: -8.5%

• October 16, 2008: +5.5%

These weren’t isolated events—they represented a market that was fundamentally broken and trying to reprice risk in real time.

The COVID Crash followed a similar pattern. From February 20 to March 23, 2020, the Nasdaq saw around 23 trading days of violent swings:

• March 12, 2020: -9.4%

• March 13, 2020: +9.3%

• March 16, 2020: -12.3%

• March 17, 2020: +6.2%

In both cases, the VIX (Volatility Index) spiked sharply and remained elevated for weeks. Interestingly, we’re seeing similar VIX activity this week—bouncing up and down erratically—yet another clue that something deeper may be brewing beneath the surface.

Markets are complex and unpredictable, but they also follow patterns. When you see repeated, outsized swings like we’re witnessing now, history tells us it’s rarely a coincidence. It’s often a sign that the system is under stress and that market participants—both retail and institutional—are struggling to price in risk accurately. Whether we’re on the cusp of another crash or entering a turbulent bear market, the warning signs are flashing.

This isn't normal.

As I am rereading this, CNBC is reporting that retailers are providing exit liquidity for institution to exit.

Retail investors are running head first into this topsy-turvy market Retail investors are running head first into this topsy-turvy market

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/10/retail-investors-are-running-head-first-into-this-topsy-turvy-market.html

The current problems that we have are

1. Bond market crisis

2. Stagflation scenario

3. Geopolitical threat

4. Economic policy shifts

5. Mortgage rates surge over 7% as tariffs hit bond market. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/11/mortgage-rates-surge-tariffs-bond-market.html

The money printer will make this worse. Lowering the rate will make it worse. Increasing the rate will make it worse. There is no easy way out of this.

I’m 26M, and have been working and investing for 4 years. I haven’t seen a major crash like 2008 or 2022 yet.

How do you deal with seeing so much of your investments go down so quickly, potentially erasing all of your gains over the past few years? Do you hold onto some cash for these buying opportunities in these moments? And what if you need to withdraw money for an emergency during these conditions?

All these outlets are copying the same story with the same headline. If you actually read the article instead of just assuming he thinks the markets will do well, it's all about his never making public predictions in the first place. Considering most people just read headlines, how does this affect the average retail investor? lol. You could instead make the subject "Why Warren Buffett isn't Predicting the Stock Market Will Do Well in 2025" and it would mean the SAME EXACT THING.

One simple explanation

With all of the evidence that Buffett is decidedly bearish about the stock market, why isn't he predicting a crash in 2025? There's one simple explanation: The legendary investor avoids making stock market predictions at all.

In his 1992 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, Buffett wrote:

We've long felt that the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune tellers look good. Even now, Charlie [Buffett's longtime business partner Charlie Munger, who died in 2023] and I continue to believe that short-term market forecasts are poison and should be kept locked up in a safe place, away from children and also from grown-ups who behave in the market like children.

If you don't believe you will at least double your money before there is a 50% crash, then why even stay invested? Because it would not be worth staying in unless you believe the market will AT LEAST double from now before a 2000/2008 level crash. If you are so confident that a crash will happen before the market multiplies again, then you're better off buying in once it crashes.