I’m 26M, and have been working and investing for 4 years. I haven’t seen a major crash like 2008 or 2022 yet.

How do you deal with seeing so much of your investments go down so quickly, potentially erasing all of your gains over the past few years? Do you hold onto some cash for these buying opportunities in these moments? And what if you need to withdraw money for an emergency during these conditions?

So for someone who hasn't started investing yet and has money in savings... Would it be better to put the money in a GIC or something guaranteed to grow a bit and then once the crash happens, buy while it's low? There is bound to be some kind of crash the way the economy is going right? Doesn't it kinda feel like things have peaked? Isn't buying at peak not really a good idea?

What does everyone think? If you had 100k from inheritance or something would you still invest it today or would you see how the next year or two plays out?

Home with an injury and watching TV and switching between business and news.

The stocks are so overheated, and there are so many risks both nationally and internationally that I keep being tempted to get out.

Yes, I know about “catch a falling knife“ and “impossible to time the market“ but I am 75 years old and very nervous! TIA!

Merry Christmas.

I’ve spent the last days in the office hiding from my family pulling specific data points from FRED (debt service, savings rates, yield curves) to stress-test the "Soft Landing" narrative. We are essentially in a "Wile E. Coyote" moment running off the cliff, but gravity hasn't kicked in yet because the momentum is so strong.

Why the Crash Hasn't Happened:

As of Q2 2025, the Household Debt Service Ratio sits at 11.2% of disposable income. This is historically low.

For comparison, this ratio peaked at nearly 16% in late 2007 right before the Great Financial Crisis. Even during the "normal" years of 2010–2019, it averaged 12.1%.

Despite the Fed raising rates, the average American is spending less of their income on debt payments today than they did a decade ago. This "shield" explains why higher rates haven't crushed consumption yet.

Total Money Market Fund assets hit a record $7.67 Trillion for the week ending December 17, 2025. This is up 13.2% from one year ago ($6.77T).

This is massive dry powder. Every time the market dips, this cash steps in to buy, creating a valuation floor that prevents a full capitulation.

Part 2: why the market is fragile https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/s/1vWWRjBaNZ

I am a big fan of Big ERN's safe withdrawal tool. I have spent a lot of time playing with it trying out different numbers.

Among other things, one thing that gave me a lot of confidence is the idea that you can safely withdraw different percentage from your portfolio depending upon the market conditions. If the market is at all time high, your safe wathdrawal might be 3.5% but if the market experiences a 50% correction, you can in fact increase your withdrawal to more than 4%.

So for example, let's say you have a $2 million 60/40 portfolio today when the market is at all time high, and you are being conservative (or scared😅) and taking out only 3% ($60k). If let's say the equity market drops by 50%, your portfolio will fall to $1.4m. Now you can infact be much less conservative and start withdrawing 4.3% (again around $60k) from your portfolio. So in the end your spending will not need be impacted by the market correction.

Once I understood this, it gave me a lot of confidence in my plan.

We’re not even down 5%, and yet the sentiment is insanely bearish everywhere I look. Fear and greed index is flashing red, and people are talking like we’re in 2008 again.

I don’t think most AI names are overvalued outside of a few hype tickers. I do go down over like 20% on my META, but I feel like this is more of temporary issue than a full-blown market crash.

Is it when retail are forced to sell their positions, even at a loss because they lack the funds to cover bills, etc?

So like recession times? Is it when unemployment rates are high? is it when disposable income is at its lowest? is it when people can't affford new triple A games? etc.

I started investing since the government opened up and since then it seems to be having trouble rising again.

I thought there was a lot of good news dispelling fears of a recession and that the rate cuts would help bring more liquidity into the market, but every single time it goes up a little it seems to struggle to keep up.

The world right now is showing three signs which are very similar to exactly what happened before the Great Depression in 1929 and the dot com crash of the year 2000.

Which means most experts around the world are expecting a major market crash to happen, and we need to look at the strategy of what investors like Warren Buffet are doing right now and copy that to protect our wealth.

The first metric which is very similar is a valuation multiple in the stock markets called the Shiller P/E ratio. Now whenever it goes above the point of 32, it means a major crash is expected, exactly what happened in 1929 and the year 2000. And right now this ratio is at 39, which is 23% higher compared to the previous benchmarks, which means it's extremely risky.

Now, the second thing is actually this very interesting concept called the yield curve inversion. What does it mean? It basically means that, you know, in the short term, when you put money in the bank in an FD, the bank gives you higher return compared to when you make an FD for a longer duration. Now, this seems very counterintuitive, but this is one of the best indicators available in the world economy today to be able to predict a recession. And this yield curve inversion is showing up in the US market since October of 2022 to December of 2024.

( FD is same as HYSA in USA)

Now, while it has normalized and become okay right now, most economists are expecting that 18 months from December 2024 is where the crash will happen.

Now comes the third sign, which is concentration of valuation of the stock market index in a handful of stocks. And we are seeing exactly this in the S&P 500 or the US index, where out of 500 stocks, just seven stocks called the Magnificent Seven AI stocks hold 47% the value of the index. And most financial analysts around the world know that AI right now is in a massive bubble, which means over the next six to twelve months, a major crash is expected and the US stock market may fall by 30 to 40%, which will have ripple effects around stock markets around the world.

Now, in such a time, what is Warren Buffet doing? Well, right now practically close to 28% of his portfolio is just in cash and bank deposits, which is the highest ever allocation he's made to such assets in history. Earlier, he would maintain his cash and bank deposit portfolio share to just about 10% because he's expecting a major crash, which is why I would recommend, you know, you really need to look at diversification in your portfolio. Possibly have 20% of your portfolio in gold, about 20 to 25% in cash and bank deposits, and please, please diversify away from risky assets.

The sell-off in tech stocks was more intense than I anticipated. Watching the S&P 500 fall below its 50-day moving average and the Nasdaq plummet from the open, honestly, the tension we all feel during such market shifts is truly nerve-wracking.

Interestingly, market sentiment changed so quickly. Just a week ago, everyone was talking about interest rate cuts, as if it were a done deal. Now, the market seems to be behaving as if the Fed is preparing to apply the brakes again. The VIX index soaring above 22 says it all.

I usually remain calm on down days, but today there was definitely something "off." Perhaps it's because some economic data was blocked… perhaps it's just another overreaction… or perhaps the market is trying to reassess reality.

Curious what's your current portfolio allocation? Staying put? Hedging? Or increasing holdings in your favored long-term investments?

I made some minor adjustments this morning, but I'm still observing how things develop next week.

Hey everyone,

I keep seeing people online and in the news / online saying things like “the market is going to crash soon.” “This or that is overvalued”, etc I’m not here to argue whether that’s true or not. I’m just trying to understand what that actually means in practice.

For the people who believe a crash is coming, what do they usually do about it? Do they sell their positions before it happens? Move to cash? Or do most just keep holding and wait it out?

I’m not asking for advice, just curious how people who expect a crash typically react or prepare.

Edit: thank you all! My question is answered, now I know :)

I finally invested heavily three months ago and we’ve had some big down days recently. I’m really worried about a crash with my luck. Of course I would pick the worst possible time to finally pull the trigger. It just sucks to see all that money disappear in a day. And not knowing whether it will be back by next week or whether it will be back in 10 years.

We have been hearing about the AI bubble for months now. Since theres a circle jerk of investing amongst mag7, all pointing to Nvidia.. everyone's on edge.

Liquidity is the concern as most are risk on and loading up margin to buy into this run.

Soo what happens when the Liquidity goes away? There's nothing left to prop up stocks. In return we will see a massive exodus similar to 2022. That was a entire year of suckage.

I dont have a crystal ball but history rimes. 2020-2021 = 2024-2025. Around end of 2021 started the decline that hurt alot of tech/spec holdings including crypto.

The difference here? We've had multiple years of living off fumes and running based on AI spend.. which if you ask me wont pay any dividends for a while. The true form of AI everyone wants to happen such as optimus bots, self driving, and whatever else are at least 5-10 years out.

Not to mention, the government shutdown concealed most likely very bad jobs data. Once we see the results of Sept, Oct and Nov it will prob shake alot of people out.

Maybe Im wrong though. Anyone think the recent drop in the market is a flash in the pan or are you siding more towards the markets cooling off big?

These companies are left holding up the stock market. If they fall, the entire market falls. And it’s the opposite if they all go up the whole market goes up. But the chart tells a different story of the recent trend. They are going up but rest of market is going down. Here is what i think of the stocks left holding up the market.

AAPL - weakness in innovation, losing growth

MSFT - might be overbought here

META - good ad business but questionable ai product profitability

NFLX - high pe might give back massive gains its had

NVDA - ai sales increase already priced in. everyone says 170 eoy yet price is stalling. People relying on eoy to save them usually not a good thing.

AMZN - aws has competition with new datacenter companies emerging. Needs to take on more debt just to maintain its margin intensive shipping business

GOOG - losing search dominance, ai is good but not perfect yet, to maintain ai dominance intensive spending must happen will affect earnings

COST - taking a hit from tarrifs, it had a monster run and might give back a lot of gains

TSLA - lead roles stepping down, doesn’t look good for promises of products happening.

I don't understand with Negative GDP/ Reports of soon to be Supply shortages/ layoffs/On off tariffs disruptions...and yet markets beginning to climb again..Yes I know we are still off the All time highs . Ty for any insight.

I wrote this last night, and I wanted to wait until the end of the day to confirm my thesis. Today, the Nasdaq ended at +333.14 on nothing except Fed saying that they will turn on the printing machine, which will devalue the dollar even more and send inflation to the moon. Everything below was my thought process last night. Additionally, the post below really helps explain why we're in deep trouble, but all of the retailers are focused on the stock market, and BlackRock and JPMorgan are telling us that we're in a recession (Stagflation).

https://www.reddit.com/r/WallStreetbetsELITE/comments/1jx4qr9/the_bond_market_crisis_explained_for_you_regards/

As I sit here watching the Nasdaq futures spike up 288 points, I can’t help but feel uneasy. With the combination of tariffs, an escalating trade war narrative, and unsettling movements in the bond market—particularly the 10-year and 30-year yields—it’s hard not to see this as a potential prelude to a market crash or at the very least, the beginning of a bear market. While nothing is ever certain in the markets, the recent behavior we’ve been witnessing isn’t just noise—it’s a glaring signal that something is fundamentally off.

When the Nasdaq starts swinging 500 points or more in either direction for several consecutive days, that level of volatility is not just abnormal—it’s a red flag for deeper market instability. This pattern often precedes or accompanies systemic crises and tends to be driven by a combination of macroeconomic disruption, loss of confidence, and major repositioning by institutional investors.

There are typically two major factors that contribute to such extreme and sustained volatility.

First, extreme volatility reflects a market grappling with uncertainty, crisis, or both. Markets do not move wildly without cause. These kinds of large, daily price swings often indicate that investors are trying to price in the unpredictable—be it a geopolitical threat, economic policy shifts, or a financial system under pressure.

What’s especially concerning now is that we’re not dealing with just one variable—we’re contending with all of them. The current economic backdrop includes unresolved trade tensions, shifting policy (playing chicken with a country that had no problem killing 40-80 million of its citizens), and geopolitical conflicts with unclear outcomes. On top of that, corporate earnings season has revealed a growing sense of uncertainty within companies themselves. A number of major firms have stopped issuing forward guidance, signaling that even CEOs and CFOs are unsure about what lies ahead. One of the most notable examples was Target, which essentially admitted, “We don’t know.” When corporate leadership starts to lose visibility, that lack of confidence trickles down through the markets.

The second driver is institutional repositioning. When large funds start rapidly rotating out of certain sectors—most commonly tech and growth—and into safer or more defensive holdings, the size of those movements alone can send markets soaring or tumbling. In addition to this rotation, institutions may begin to hedge more aggressively or unwind leveraged positions, creating massive capital flows that can spike volatility. This is why we're seeing large green and red days for no reason.

Interestingly, several articles have surfaced this past week discussing these very moves—rotations, de-risking, liquidity tightening—but I initially dismissed them as overblown headlines. In hindsight, I think they were onto something, and I wish I had saved those links for reference. The market may be telling us more than we realized.

These patterns of extreme volatility aren’t unprecedented. In fact, we’ve seen them during some of the most turbulent periods in recent history. Two notable examples are the 2008 Financial Crisis and the COVID Crash of 2020.

During the 2008 collapse, from September 15 to late November, the market experienced around 30–40 trading days of repeated 500+ point swings in the Nasdaq. Some notable days include:

• October 13, 2008: +11.8%

• October 15, 2008: -8.5%

• October 16, 2008: +5.5%

These weren’t isolated events—they represented a market that was fundamentally broken and trying to reprice risk in real time.

The COVID Crash followed a similar pattern. From February 20 to March 23, 2020, the Nasdaq saw around 23 trading days of violent swings:

• March 12, 2020: -9.4%

• March 13, 2020: +9.3%

• March 16, 2020: -12.3%

• March 17, 2020: +6.2%

In both cases, the VIX (Volatility Index) spiked sharply and remained elevated for weeks. Interestingly, we’re seeing similar VIX activity this week—bouncing up and down erratically—yet another clue that something deeper may be brewing beneath the surface.

Markets are complex and unpredictable, but they also follow patterns. When you see repeated, outsized swings like we’re witnessing now, history tells us it’s rarely a coincidence. It’s often a sign that the system is under stress and that market participants—both retail and institutional—are struggling to price in risk accurately. Whether we’re on the cusp of another crash or entering a turbulent bear market, the warning signs are flashing.

This isn't normal.

As I am rereading this, CNBC is reporting that retailers are providing exit liquidity for institution to exit.

Retail investors are running head first into this topsy-turvy market Retail investors are running head first into this topsy-turvy market

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/10/retail-investors-are-running-head-first-into-this-topsy-turvy-market.html

The current problems that we have are

1. Bond market crisis

2. Stagflation scenario

3. Geopolitical threat

4. Economic policy shifts

5. Mortgage rates surge over 7% as tariffs hit bond market. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/11/mortgage-rates-surge-tariffs-bond-market.html

The money printer will make this worse. Lowering the rate will make it worse. Increasing the rate will make it worse. There is no easy way out of this.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/market-crashing-eyes-buyers-backing-131601496.html

Power up the flux capacitor, climb aboard your DeLorean and prepare to travel back to 2008 because recent headlines concerning a real estate market crash seem very familiar.

The main differences between today’s imploding market and that of 17 years ago were that in 08, bad mortgages and over-inflated house prices were the issue. Today, high interest rates, soaring insurance costs, economic fears, and stubborn inflation are the primary problems. The results, however, are pretty similar — much of the U.S. is becoming a buyer’s market, according to a recent report by Redfin (NASDAQ:RDFN).