September 26, 2024 - Remember two years ago, when GDP was reported as having shrunk for two consecutive quarters, and there was an entire exhausting discourse about whether it qualified as a recession? Turns out it was a statistical illusion. Why it matters: It is a reminder, as we get caught up in debates over how to interpret economic data, of how much we don't really know in real time about the inner workings of the economy. Driving the news: The Commerce Department published on Thursday morning revised GDP data for the past several years based on more complete information.

July 28, 2022 - Concerns that the U.S. economy could be heading into a recession intensified after official figures released July 28 showed that the U.S. economy shrank for the second straight quarter, just days after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast ...

1 week ago - Remember back in October 2022, a Bloomberg headline said there was a 100% chance of recession over the next 12 months? That very certain prediction turned out to be very wrong, but the idea that the economy is perpetually ...

The sharp contrast between the index’s average recession path and the six-month path in 2022 suggests that a recession is unlikely to have started in first quarter 2022, despite two consecutive quarters of declining GDP in the first half of 2022.

3 days ago - They estimate there is a 35% chance America and the world will enter a recession in 2026. ... A recent report from the accounting juggernaut EY (formerly Ernst & Young) suggests that "K-shaped" economic growth will continue to be a big story in 2026.

July 20, 2022 - US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference at the Federal Reserve Building in Washington, DC, June 15, 2022. ... As inflation continues to increase, so does the probability of a recession, according to several recent economic forecasts.

The good news: If it does come to pass, a recession today is likely to be shallower and less damaging to corporate earnings than recent downturns. Here’s why. ... Aside from the pandemic-induced 2020 recession, other recent recessions have been credit-driven, including the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2008 and the dot-com bust of 2000-2001. In those cases, debt-related excesses built up in housing and internet infrastructure, and it took nearly a decade for the economy to absorb them.

September 18, 2025 - The U.S. has not been in an economic recession since 2022.

1 week ago - Zoom in: In April, President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs sent the stock market swooning and economists upgrading their recession odds. It wasn't the only sign of trouble. Job growth came to a near-halt over the summer.

According to the BEA's advance estimate, Gross Domestic Product fell at an annualized rate of 0.9% for the second quarter—which has since been revised downward to a decline of only 0.6% following a 1.6% decline in GDP reported for the first ...

August 16, 2023 - "A number of forces have coincided ... economist at Bank of America, said in a July 2022 analysis. "We now forecast a mild recession in the U.S. economy this year ... In addition to fading of prior fiscal support ......

April 26, 2024 - It's also not the first time that two consecutive quarters of decline were not called a recession and a recession can even be shorter than 2 quarters. See https://economics.stackexchange.com/a/52205/37817 for details and sources. ... NOTE: Top-level comments by non-approved users must be manually approved by a mod before they appear.

July 12, 2023 - The University is currently operating under normal conditionsLast updated at 4:49pmTuesday, December 9th, 2025 ... With so many mixed indicators about the economy, The Well asked economist Gerald Cohen for his forecast. Susan Hudson, The Well, Monday, November 14th, 2022 ... Every day, there seems to be a new headline with a conflicting forecast about the American economy. Here’s a recent sampling: “Why the countdown to a recession begins now” (Market Watch).

Real retail sales are currently ... April 2022 (data through September 2025) Real personal income is currently 0.08% off its all-time high from April 2025 (data through August 2025) It's difficult to discuss the behavior of the big four leading up to the "COVID" recession - it likely ...

4 weeks ago - The legendary yield curve (which tracks US Treasury Bond yields and has correctly predicted every downturn since the 1970s) inverted in 2022, and the Sahm rule (a formula based on the unemployment rate) was triggered in 2024.

October 18, 2022 - "Fitch expects the U.S. economy to enter genuine recession territory — albeit relatively mild by historical standards — in 2Q23." David Solomon, Chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs, speaks at the 2022 Milken Institute Global Conference, in ...

Consumer prices will stabilize at 5% by the end of 2022. Inflation will continue into 2023, and unemployment will rise. In the next five years, inflation will remain at the level of 4% per year.8 · Against the background of moderately optimistic assessments of the economic growth prospects, ...

November 18, 2025 - With the federal government open after its longest shutdown on record, we will soon get a clear indication of how payrolls fared in September and October. The most recent data, through August, already showed a marked slowdown in job growth, and much of the alternative data released during the shutdown suggests that this weakness has likely continued.

United States has been in recession since 2022.

September 22, 2021 - This was an unusual circumstance related to the partial closing of many businesses and schools and the sudden layoff of workers in response to the onset of the pandemic, followed by a rapid reopening for most businesses. The previous recession occurred more than a decade earlier, the so-called Great Recession of 2007-2009.