July 28, 2022 - Concerns that the U.S. economy could be heading into a recession intensified after official figures released July 28 showed that the U.S. economy shrank for the second straight quarter, just days after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast ...

October 17, 2022 - A US recession is effectively certain in the next 12 months in new Bloomberg Economics model projections, a blow to President Joe Biden’s economic messaging ahead of the November midterms.

September 26, 2024 - Remember two years ago, when GDP was reported as having shrunk for two consecutive quarters, and there was an entire exhausting discourse about whether it qualified as a recession? Turns out it was a statistical illusion. Why it matters: It is a reminder, as we get caught up in debates over how to interpret economic data, of how much we don't really know in real time about the inner workings of the economy. Driving the news: The Commerce Department published on Thursday morning revised GDP data for the past several years based on more complete information.

August 18, 2022 - The U.S. economy is facing increasing weakness that could bring a recession before the end of the year, the Conference Board warned on Thursday.

The good news: If it does come to pass, a recession today is likely to be shallower and less damaging to corporate earnings than recent downturns. Here’s why. ... Aside from the pandemic-induced 2020 recession, other recent recessions have been credit-driven, including the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2008 and the dot-com bust of 2000-2001. In those cases, debt-related excesses built up in housing and internet infrastructure, and it took nearly a decade for the economy to absorb them.

July 1, 2022 - Fitch Ratings: The team at Fitch ... economist, expect the U.S. economy to stagnate in late 2022 and shrink in the first three quarters of 2023, but only by a “relatively modest” 0.4 percent for the year....

The sharp contrast between the index’s average recession path and the six-month path in 2022 suggests that a recession is unlikely to have started in first quarter 2022, despite two consecutive quarters of declining GDP in the first half of 2022.

July 20, 2022 - US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference at the Federal Reserve Building in Washington, DC, June 15, 2022. ... As inflation continues to increase, so does the probability of a recession, according to several recent economic forecasts.

January 26, 2023 - "The housing sector is in a recession," says Doug Duncan, chief economist for the mortgage giant Fannie Mae. "It will be a difficult year." ... A man carries a ladder through new home construction in Trappe, Md., on Oct.

September 18, 2025 - The U.S. has not been in an economic recession since 2022.

October 10, 2022 - The US is facing rising recession fears as the Federal Reserve remains bullish in fighting high inflation. More than eight out of 10 CEOs recently said they anticipate a recession in the next 12 months, according to a new survey [File: Brendan ...

May 19, 2022 - The U.S. economy could be heading for a recession in the next year, according to growing warnings from banks and economists, as a sudden bout of pessimism hammers financial markets, which on Thursday spiraled further from recent highs.

July 28, 2022 - The U.S. economy shrank in the last three months by 0.9%. This is the second consecutive quarter where the economy has contracted. In the first quarter, GDP, or gross domestic product, decreased at an annual rate of 1.6%. While two consecutive ...

Consumer prices will stabilize at 5% by the end of 2022. Inflation will continue into 2023, and unemployment will rise. In the next five years, inflation will remain at the level of 4% per year.8 · Against the background of moderately optimistic assessments of the economic growth prospects, ...

August 16, 2023 - "A number of forces have coincided ... economist at Bank of America, said in a July 2022 analysis. "We now forecast a mild recession in the U.S. economy this year ... In addition to fading of prior fiscal support ......

Real retail sales are currently ... April 2022 (data through September 2025) Real personal income is currently 0.08% off its all-time high from April 2025 (data through August 2025) It's difficult to discuss the behavior of the big four leading up to the "COVID" recession - it likely ...

November 18, 2025 - With the federal government open after its longest shutdown on record, we will soon get a clear indication of how payrolls fared in September and October. The most recent data, through August, already showed a marked slowdown in job growth, and much of the alternative data released during the shutdown suggests that this weakness has likely continued.

December 27, 2022 - We've seen this story before. When inflation picks up and the Fed responds by pushing up interest rates, the economy ultimately caves under the weight of higher interest rates." Zandi is in the minority of economists who believe the Federal Reserve can avoid a recession by raising rates just long enough to avoid squashing growth.

September 12, 2022 - The next release of GDP growth for the second quarter of 2022 is scheduled on September 28. These indicators signal a robust outlook for the U.S. economy, at least for the time being, which is in line with a recovery from the Pandemic Recession.

May 1, 2024 - It's also not the first time that two consecutive quarters of decline were not called a recession and a recession can even be shorter than 2 quarters. See https://economics.stackexchange.com/a/52205/37817 for details and sources. ... NOTE: Top-level comments by non-approved users must be manually approved by a mod before they appear.