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What is the deal with Venezuela, Guyana, and the Esequibo territory?

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Guyana found a massive oil reserve in 2015 and partnered with Exxon Mobile to make an enormous amount money that Venezuela needs/wants. For some context, Guyana is an English speaking country with 800k people that's mostly composed of Indians(South Asia), Africans, and a few indigenous people. Neighboring Venezuela is a Spanish speaking, mostly Mestizo (European/Indigenous mix), country of 30 million people. Or at least it used to be 30 million; they lost a few million over the last decade due to people fleeing the nation. After Venezuela ruined their oil based economy through nationalizing their companies, scarring away investors, and getting sanctions imposed on them for funding socialist/drug cartel groups in neighboring countries like the FARC in Colombia, they've become desperate for any sources of revenue. Venezuela is running a referendum on whether or not they want the territories west of the Esequiba River. That's where the natural resources are and it includes 2/3rds of Guyana's land. Venezuela had legitimate claim for the territory over 200 years ago, but poor geography led the government to neglect the region which allowed the British to come in and invest infrastructure there instead, eventually annexing the land as their own colony. The territory has been on maps as “territory under reclamation” for decades but petitions to the UN have failed to gain international sympathy as the old Venezuelan government did nothing for the Guayanese people. After gaining independence, Guyana became an ally of the UK and US ever since. There has been no indication of the Guyanese populace showing desire to unite with Venezuela since independence, especially now given Venezuela's condition. That said, the population gap is a severe weak spot for Guyana, and while the Amazon jungle can act as a natural defense in a potential war, the Guyanese government has made sure to secure their sovereignty with increased cooperation with the U.S. military. I don't know how popular Venezuelan irredentism is as the current dictator Nicolas Maduro has suspended and rejected democratic elections multiple times, and has been accused of vote rigging and massacring protestors multiple times now. This makes objective polling of Venezuelan people difficult due to fears of government reprisals. To put to scale how big the Guyanese profits are right now, their nominal gdp per capital has almost quadrupled from $5,580 in 2015 to $20,540 in 2023, a faster growth rate than any country in the world. If you wanted to adjust for ppp, then it would be $60,648 in 2023, almost 6 times than the 2015 ppp of $11,205. Meanwhile Venezuela has coincidentally had the largest decrease of any country in the world in that same time span, declining from a nominal peak of around $15,000 down to around $3,000 in 2023. On top of that, as Guyana continues to build infrastructure to capitalize on their newly found oil fields, their nominal GDP per capital is expected to rise to around $39,000, which would make them the wealthiest country in all of Latin America, easily placing them in developed world status. Critics believe that Maduro is only using this referendum in order to gain popular support back at home, but they also have international sympathizers. Russia and China are friendly with Venezuela, with Russian troops being allowed to visit in recent years. Any international consensus won't be reached with these two going against an American ally. Neighboring Colombia and Brazil currently have pro socialist presidents that are very anti American hegemony and both have ties to previous socialist Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez. The Colombian president in particular, Gustavo Petro, even used to be a member of the infamous socialist guerilla group M19. In an event of a Venezuelan invasion, Guyana is unlikely to find military support from neighbors, or even get a unified international condemnation of Venezuela, thus creating a nice window of opportunity for annexation that Venezuela didn't have in the past. Answer from jelopii on reddit.com

reddit.com › r/news › venezuelans vote in a referendum to claim sovereignty of a large territory under dispute with guyana

r/news on Reddit: Venezuelans vote in a referendum to claim sovereignty of a large territory under dispute with Guyana

October 16, 2021 - Brazil mobilized to their northern border that is adjacent to Venezuela and Guyana. This invasion is not going to be a walk in the park. I wonder who is backing this move? ... Venezuela has been itching to do this for decades and I'm sure they're well prepared to make moves once the referendum gives them the public's approval

reddit.com › r/outoftheloop › what is the deal with venezuela, guyana, and the esequibo territory?

r/OutOfTheLoop on Reddit: What is the deal with Venezuela, Guyana, and the Esequibo territory?

December 1, 2023 -

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guayana_Esequiba
So one news story that's been confusing me lately is Venezuela attempting to annex the Esequibo territory from Guyana.
I know that the territorial dispute is old, but why try to annex now? And what's the endgame? Why were previous leaders, even before the Chavista era, uninterested in Esequibo, and why does Maduro want to do it now as Venezuela barely starts to get a handle on its financial crisis?
Why has so much time gone by without an attempt at a diplomatic resolution? But also, if this territorial dispute is so important, why has it remained relatively peaceful (as far as I'm aware at least)?

Why are international orgs and allies aside from the ICJ fairly mum about this?
And outside the government, are Venezuelans broadly supportive of this? Is Venezuelan irredentism a popular thing?

Top answer

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Answer: Guyana found a massive oil reserve in 2015 and partnered with Exxon Mobile to make an enormous amount money that Venezuela needs/wants. For some context, Guyana is an English speaking country with 800k people that's mostly composed of Indians(South Asia), Africans, and a few indigenous people. Neighboring Venezuela is a Spanish speaking, mostly Mestizo (European/Indigenous mix), country of 30 million people. Or at least it used to be 30 million; they lost a few million over the last decade due to people fleeing the nation. After Venezuela ruined their oil based economy through nationalizing their companies, scarring away investors, and getting sanctions imposed on them for funding socialist/drug cartel groups in neighboring countries like the FARC in Colombia, they've become desperate for any sources of revenue. Venezuela is running a referendum on whether or not they want the territories west of the Esequiba River. That's where the natural resources are and it includes 2/3rds of Guyana's land. Venezuela had legitimate claim for the territory over 200 years ago, but poor geography led the government to neglect the region which allowed the British to come in and invest infrastructure there instead, eventually annexing the land as their own colony. The territory has been on maps as “territory under reclamation” for decades but petitions to the UN have failed to gain international sympathy as the old Venezuelan government did nothing for the Guayanese people. After gaining independence, Guyana became an ally of the UK and US ever since. There has been no indication of the Guyanese populace showing desire to unite with Venezuela since independence, especially now given Venezuela's condition. That said, the population gap is a severe weak spot for Guyana, and while the Amazon jungle can act as a natural defense in a potential war, the Guyanese government has made sure to secure their sovereignty with increased cooperation with the U.S. military. I don't know how popular Venezuelan irredentism is as the current dictator Nicolas Maduro has suspended and rejected democratic elections multiple times, and has been accused of vote rigging and massacring protestors multiple times now. This makes objective polling of Venezuelan people difficult due to fears of government reprisals. To put to scale how big the Guyanese profits are right now, their nominal gdp per capital has almost quadrupled from $5,580 in 2015 to $20,540 in 2023, a faster growth rate than any country in the world. If you wanted to adjust for ppp, then it would be $60,648 in 2023, almost 6 times than the 2015 ppp of $11,205. Meanwhile Venezuela has coincidentally had the largest decrease of any country in the world in that same time span, declining from a nominal peak of around $15,000 down to around $3,000 in 2023. On top of that, as Guyana continues to build infrastructure to capitalize on their newly found oil fields, their nominal GDP per capital is expected to rise to around $39,000, which would make them the wealthiest country in all of Latin America, easily placing them in developed world status. Critics believe that Maduro is only using this referendum in order to gain popular support back at home, but they also have international sympathizers. Russia and China are friendly with Venezuela, with Russian troops being allowed to visit in recent years. Any international consensus won't be reached with these two going against an American ally. Neighboring Colombia and Brazil currently have pro socialist presidents that are very anti American hegemony and both have ties to previous socialist Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez. The Colombian president in particular, Gustavo Petro, even used to be a member of the infamous socialist guerilla group M19. In an event of a Venezuelan invasion, Guyana is unlikely to find military support from neighbors, or even get a unified international condemnation of Venezuela, thus creating a nice window of opportunity for annexation that Venezuela didn't have in the past.

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Answer: Not deeply involved in the dispute, so others may come with more thoroughly researched answers later, but it looks like most of this is already actually covered in the Wikipedia article you've linked. why try to annex now? That looks to be twofold - both as part of an ongoing rise in tensions for the two countries since the discovery of oil in the area, and due to potential ICJ time pressure. Regarding the oil, that's been an accelerant to the dispute since 2013, and seems to have become more heated since Exxon started working in the area with Guyana's approval in 2015. On the ICJ front, they gave Venezuela until this year to submit their arguments in advance of any ruling, and Venezuela seems to continue to insist the ICJ has no standing to rule on the issue and looks to be refusing to cooperate. Why were previous leaders, even before the Chavista era, uninterested in Esequibo When Venezuela hasn't been actively pushing to have control of the area, it looks to have largely been to try and improve stability in the region and actively improve diplomatic relations. That's not always the case, though, as in 1966 Venezuela took control of Ankoko island, and provided refuge for anti-government rebels after a failed 1968 rebellion in Guyana. Why has so much time gone by without an attempt at a diplomatic resolution? Because neither side can agree on the basis of what an agreement would look like here, Guyana already effectively has what they want and feel no need to negotiate, and Venezuela lacks the ability to exert enough force to compel Guyana to come to table. The last time diplomatic resolution of the issue was seriously tried, neither side could even agree which historical rulings regarding the territory were valid. Why are international orgs and allies aside from the ICJ fairly mum about this? The Commonwealth and CARICOM have both issued statements in support of Guyana, and the USA has had ships join Guyana patrols in the disputed coastal waters. Doesn't have to be loud for a statement to be made. are Venezuelans broadly supportive of this? With the Referendum happening in two days, we should get to see the numbers on this soon.

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